{"id":5479,"date":"2025-12-16T19:49:18","date_gmt":"2025-12-16T10:49:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/?p=5479"},"modified":"2025-12-16T19:49:20","modified_gmt":"2025-12-16T10:49:20","slug":"%ec%82%bc%ec%84%b1%ec%a0%84%ec%9e%90-10%eb%85%84%ed%9b%84-%ec%a3%bc%ea%b0%80-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d2035-prophet-%ec%98%88%ec%b8%a1-%eb%b0%b1%ed%85%8c%ec%8a%a4%ed%8a%b8-%ec%8b%9c%eb%82%98%eb%a6%ac%ec%98%a4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/en\/%ec%82%bc%ec%84%b1%ec%a0%84%ec%9e%90-10%eb%85%84%ed%9b%84-%ec%a3%bc%ea%b0%80-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d2035-prophet-%ec%98%88%ec%b8%a1-%eb%b0%b1%ed%85%8c%ec%8a%a4%ed%8a%b8-%ec%8b%9c%eb%82%98%eb%a6%ac%ec%98%a4\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790 10\ub144\ud6c4 \uc8fc\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd(2035): Prophet \uc608\uce21 + \ubc31\ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8 + \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 \ubd84\uc11d (Python)"},"content":{"rendered":"<style>.kb-image5479_ccf09f-d5 .kb-image-has-overlay:after{opacity:0.3;}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-image kb-image5479_ccf09f-d5\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"512\" height=\"290\" src=\"https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-12.png\" alt=\"\uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790 10\ub144\ud6c4 \uc8fc\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd \uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0\" class=\"kb-img wp-image-5481\" srcset=\"https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-12.png 512w, https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-12-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-12-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 512px) 100vw, 512px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc81c\uac00 \uc791\ub144 \uc774\ub9d8\ucbe4(2025\ub144 12\uc6d4) <a href=\"https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/samsung-electronics-10-year-stock-price-prediction\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"4110\">\uc720\uc0ac\ud55c \uc8fc\uc81c\ub85c \uae00<\/a>\uc744 \uc37c\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790 10\ub144\ud6c4 \uc8fc\uac00\uac00 12\ub9cc\uc6d0 \uc5b8\uc800\ub9ac\uc77c \uac83\uc774\ub2e4! <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uadf8\ub7f0\ub370 \ucd5c\uadfc \uac70\uc758 \uadfc\ucc98(\ucd5c\uace0 113,400\uc6d0)\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud574\ubc84\ub838\ub294\ub370\uc694. \uc800\ub3c4 \uae5c\uc9dd \ub180\ub790\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub798\uc11c 1\ub144\uc774 \uc9c0\ub09c \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0 \ud55c\ubc88 \ub354 \uc0b4\ud3b4\ubd10\uc57c\uaca0\ub2e4\ub294 \uc0dd\uac01\uc774 \ub4e4\uc5b4\uc11c \ubcf8 \u3154\ub0b4\uc6a9\uc744 \uc801\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3\uc904 \uc694\uc57d<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\ub370\uc774\ud130 \uae30\uc900\uc77c:<\/strong> 2025.12.16.(\ud654) \/ <strong>\uc608\uce21 \uc2dc\uc810:<\/strong> 2035\ub144 \ub9d0(10\ub144)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\uacb0\ub860:<\/strong> \ub2e8\uc77c \uc22b\uc790\ubcf4\ub2e4 <strong>\uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624(\ubc94\uc704)<\/strong> \ub85c \ubcf4\ub294 \uac8c \uc548\uc804\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. (\ubaa8\ub378 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131 \u2260 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\uc774 \uae00\uc758 \ubaa9\ud45c:<\/strong> \u201c\ub9de\ucd94\uae30\u201d\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c <strong>\ub370\uc774\ud130 \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \uc0dd\uac01\ud558\ub294 \ud2c0<\/strong>(\ubaa8\ub378+\uac80\uc99d+\ud55c\uacc4)\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4dc\ub294 \uac83<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u26a0\ufe0f \ubcf8 \uae00\uc740 \uad50\uc721 \ubaa9\uc801\uc774\uba70 \ud22c\uc790 \uc790\ubb38\uc774 \uc544\ub2d9\ub2c8\ub2e4. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n<style>.kb-table-of-content-nav.kb-table-of-content-id83_5f28a6-34 .kb-table-of-content-wrap{padding-top:var(--global-kb-spacing-sm, 1.5rem);padding-right:var(--global-kb-spacing-sm, 1.5rem);padding-bottom:var(--global-kb-spacing-sm, 1.5rem);padding-left:var(--global-kb-spacing-sm, 1.5rem);border-top:3px solid var(--global-palette2, #2B6CB0);border-right:3px solid var(--global-palette2, #2B6CB0);border-bottom:3px solid var(--global-palette2, #2B6CB0);border-left:3px solid var(--global-palette2, #2B6CB0);border-top-left-radius:5px;border-top-right-radius:5px;border-bottom-right-radius:5px;border-bottom-left-radius:5px;box-shadow:0px 0px 14px 0px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2);}.kb-table-of-content-nav.kb-table-of-content-id83_5f28a6-34 .kb-table-of-contents-title-wrap{padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.kb-table-of-content-nav.kb-table-of-content-id83_5f28a6-34 .kb-table-of-contents-title-wrap{color:var(--global-palette2, #2B6CB0);}.kb-table-of-content-nav.kb-table-of-content-id83_5f28a6-34 .kb-table-of-contents-title{color:var(--global-palette2, #2B6CB0);font-size:28px;font-weight:regular;font-style:normal;}.kb-table-of-content-nav.kb-table-of-content-id83_5f28a6-34 .kb-table-of-content-wrap .kb-table-of-content-list{color:var(--global-palette1, #3182CE);line-height:2em;font-weight:regular;font-style:normal;margin-top:var(--global-kb-spacing-sm, 1.5rem);margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px;}.kb-table-of-content-nav.kb-table-of-content-id83_5f28a6-34 .kb-table-of-content-wrap .kb-table-of-content-list .kb-table-of-contents__entry:hover{color:var(--global-palette6, #718096);}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kb-table-of-content-nav.kb-table-of-content-id83_5f28a6-34 .kb-table-of-content-wrap{border-top:3px solid var(--global-palette2, #2B6CB0);border-right:3px solid var(--global-palette2, #2B6CB0);border-bottom:3px solid var(--global-palette2, #2B6CB0);border-left:3px solid var(--global-palette2, #2B6CB0);}}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kb-table-of-content-nav.kb-table-of-content-id83_5f28a6-34 .kb-table-of-contents-title{font-size:28px;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kb-table-of-content-nav.kb-table-of-content-id83_5f28a6-34 .kb-table-of-content-wrap{border-top:3px solid var(--global-palette2, #2B6CB0);border-right:3px solid var(--global-palette2, #2B6CB0);border-bottom:3px solid var(--global-palette2, #2B6CB0);border-left:3px solid var(--global-palette2, #2B6CB0);}.kb-table-of-content-nav.kb-table-of-content-id83_5f28a6-34 .kb-table-of-contents-title{font-size:28px;}}<\/style>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1) \uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790 10\ub144\ud6c4 \uc8fc\uac00, \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4\uc774 \uc9c4\uc9dc \uad81\uae08\ud574\ud558\ub294 \uac83<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc758 \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4\uc740 \ubcf4\ud1b5 \uc774\uac78 \uc6d0\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u201c10\ub144 \ub4a4 \ub300\ucda9 \uc5bc\ub9c8?\u201d<\/strong> (\ub2e8, \u201c\uc5b8\uc81c \uae30\uc900\uc778\uc9c0\u201d\uac00 \uc911\uc694)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u201c\ub099\uad00\/\ube44\uad00 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uac00 \uc788\ub098?\u201d<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u201c\uc774 \uc608\uce21\uc744 \ubbff\uc5b4\ub3c4 \ub418\ub098?\u201d<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uadf8\ub798\uc11c \uc774 \uae00\uc740 <strong>\uae30\uc900\uc77c + \ubc94\uc704 + \uac80\uc99d(\ubc31\ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8)<\/strong> \ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uad6c\uc870\ub85c \uc774\uc57c\uae30\ub97c \ud480\uc5b4\uac00\ubcf4\ub824\uace0 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2) \uc65c \u201c\ub2e8\uc77c \ubaa9\ud45c\uac00\u201d\ub294 \uc704\ud5d8\ud560\uae4c?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc8fc\uac00\ub294 \uae30\uc220\/\uacbd\uc7c1\/\uc815\ucc45\/\uae08\ub9ac\/\ud658\uc728\/\uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \ub4f1 \ub9ce\uc740 \ubcc0\uc218\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ud06c\uac8c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \uc0dd\uae41\ub2c8\ub2e4.<br>\uac8c\ub2e4\uac00 \uc7a5\uae30 \uc608\uce21\uc740 <strong>\uc624\ucc28\uc5d0 \uc624\ucc28\uac00 \ub204\uc801<\/strong>\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uadf8\ub798\uc11c \uc774 \uae00\uc740 \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \uc774\ub807\uac8c \uc815\ub9ac\ud558\uace0\uc790 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. <br>\ubb3c\ub860 \ub2e4\ub4e4 \uc815\ub2f5\uc744 \uc54c\uace0 \uacc4\uc2ed\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uae30\uc5c5\uc758 \ub0b4\uc7ac\uac00\uce58\uc5d0 \uc218\ub834\ud558\uac8c \ub41c\ub2e4!<br>(\ubb38\uc81c\ub294 \uadf8 \ub0b4\uc7ac\uac00\uce58\ub97c \uc0b0\uc815\ud558\ub294\uac8c \uc27d\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4\ub294\uac70\uaca0\uc8e0?)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Base(\uc911\uc559\uac12)<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Bull(\ub099\uad00 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624)<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Bear(\ubcf4\uc218 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624)<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud30c\uc774\uc36c\uc5d0 \uad00\uc2ec\uc774 \ubcc4\ub85c \uc5c6\uc73c\uc2e0 \ubd84\uc740 \uc5ec\uae30<a href=\"#samsung-scenario-table\" data-type=\"internal\" data-id=\"#samsung-scenario-table\">[\ud83d\udc49 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 \ud45c\ub85c \ubc14\ub85c \uac00\uae30]<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud574\uc11c \ud45c\ud615\ud0dc\ub85c \uc815\ub9ac\ub41c \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ud655\uc778\ud558\uc138\uc694!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3) \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc900\ube44: 10\ub144\uce58 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \uac00\uc838\uc624\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95 (<a href=\"http:\/\/Python.org\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Python<\/a>)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud575\uc2ec: \u201cClose(\uc885\uac00)\u201d\ub97c \uc4f0\uba74 \ubd84\ud560\/\ubc30\ub2f9 \ub4f1 \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8 \uc601\ud5a5\uc774 \ub35c\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code language-python\"><code>import yfinance as yf\nimport pandas as pd\n\nticker = \"005930.KS\"\ndf = yf.download(ticker, start=\"2015-01-01\", auto_adjust=True, progress=False)\n\nprice = df&#91;\"Close\"].iloc&#91;:, 0].rename(\"y\").to_frame()\nprice.index.name = \"ds\"\nprice = price.dropna()\nprint(price.head())\nprint(f\"\uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790 \uc8fc\uac00 \ub370\uc774\ud130: {len(price)} \uc77c\")\nprice.to_csv(\"samsung_stock_prices.csv\")<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4) Prophet\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uce21\ud558\uae30 (\uc6d4 \ub2e8\uc704 \ucd94\ucc9c)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc77c\ubcc4 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub294 \ub178\uc774\uc988\uac00 \ucee4\uc11c <strong>10\ub144 \uc7a5\uae30 \uc608\uce21<\/strong>\uc5d0\ub294 \uacfc\uc801\ud569\/\ucc29\uc2dc\uac00 \uc0dd\uae30\uae30 \uc27d\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<br>\uadf8\ub798\uc11c <strong>\uc6d4 \ub2e8\uc704\ub85c \ub9ac\uc0d8\ud50c\ub9c1<\/strong>\ud55c \ub4a4 \uc608\uce21\ud558\ub294 \uac78 \ucd94\ucc9c\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. Prophet\ub3c4 \ube44\uc77c\ubcc4 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0\uc11c \uc608\uce21 \uc8fc\uae30\ub97c \ub9de\ucd94\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc744 \uc548\ub0b4\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code language-python\"><code>import yfinance as yf\nimport pandas as pd\nfrom prophet import Prophet\nimport matplotlib.pyplot as plt\nfrom matplotlib import font_manager, rc\nimport warnings\nwarnings.filterwarnings('ignore')\n\n# \ud83d\udd39 \ud55c\uae00 \ud3f0\ud2b8 \uc124\uc815 (\uc0ac\uc6a9 OS\uc5d0 \ub9de\uac8c \ud55c \uc904\ub9cc \ud65c\uc131\ud654)\nplt.rcParams&#91;'font.family'] = 'AppleGothic'      # macOS\n# plt.rcParams&#91;'font.family'] = 'Malgun Gothic'  # Windows\n# plt.rcParams&#91;'font.family'] = 'NanumGothic'    # Linux (\ub098\ub214\ud3f0\ud2b8 \uc124\uce58 \uc2dc)\nplt.rcParams&#91;'axes.unicode_minus'] = False      # \ub9c8\uc774\ub108\uc2a4 \uae68\uc9d0 \ubc29\uc9c0\n\n# \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ub2e4\uc6b4\ub85c\ub4dc\nticker = \"005930.KS\"\ndf = yf.download(ticker, start=\"2015-01-01\", auto_adjust=True, progress=False)\nprice = df&#91;\"Close\"].iloc&#91;:, 0].rename(\"y\").to_frame()\nprice.index.name = \"ds\"\nprice = price.dropna()\nprint(f\"\uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790 \uc8fc\uac00 \ub370\uc774\ud130: {len(price)} \uc77c\")\nprice.to_csv(\"samsung_stock_prices.csv\")\n\nmonthly = price.resample(\"ME\").last().reset_index()\nprint(f\"\uc6d4 \ub370\uc774\ud130: {len(monthly)} \uac1c\uc6d4\")\n\n# Prophet \ubaa8\ub378\nm = Prophet(\n    yearly_seasonality=True,\n    weekly_seasonality=False,\n    daily_seasonality=False,\n    changepoint_prior_scale=0.2,\n    seasonality_mode=\"multiplicative\"\n)\nm.fit(monthly)\n\n# \uc608\uce21 \uc0dd\uc131\nfuture = m.make_future_dataframe(periods=120, freq=\"ME\")\nfcst = m.predict(future)\n\n# \uacb0\uacfc \ucd9c\ub825\nprint(\"\\n=== 2026\ub144 12\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc608\uce21 ===\")\nnext_year = fcst&#91;fcst&#91;'ds'] > '2025-12-31'].head(12)&#91;&#91;'ds', 'yhat']].round(0)\nprint(next_year.to_string(index=False))\n\nprint(\"\\n=== 10\ub144 \ud6c4 \uc0d8\ud50c (2035\ub144) ===\")\nprint(fcst&#91;fcst&#91;'ds'] > '2035-01-01'].tail(3)&#91;&#91;'ds', 'yhat']].round(0))\n\n# CSV \uc800\uc7a5\nfcst.to_csv(\"samsung_prophet_forecast.csv\", index=False)\nprint(\"\\n\u2705 \uc608\uce21 \uc644\ub8cc: samsung_prophet_forecast.csv \uc800\uc7a5\")\n\n# \uc608\uce21 \uadf8\ub798\ud504 \uc800\uc7a5\nfig1 = m.plot(fcst)\nplt.title(\"\uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790 \uc8fc\uac00 Prophet \uc608\uce21 (2015-2035)\")\nplt.savefig(\"samsung_forecast.png\", dpi=300, bbox_inches='tight')\nplt.close()\nprint(\"\ud83d\udcca \uc2dc\uac01\ud654 \uc800\uc7a5: samsung_forecast.png\")\n\n# \uad6c\uc131\uc694\uc18c \ud50c\ub86f \uc800\uc7a5\nfig2 = m.plot_components(fcst)\nplt.savefig(\"samsung_forecast_components.png\", dpi=300, bbox_inches='tight')\nplt.close()\nprint(\"\ud83d\udcca \uad6c\uc131\uc694\uc18c \ubd84\uc11d: samsung_forecast_components.png\")<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc704 \ucf54\ub4dc \uc2e4\ud589\uacb0\uacfc\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>\uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790 \uc8fc\uac00 \ub370\uc774\ud130: 2687 \uc77c\n\uc6d4 \ub370\uc774\ud130: 132 \uac1c\uc6d4\n19:03:52 - cmdstanpy - INFO - Chain &#91;1] start processing\n19:03:52 - cmdstanpy - INFO - Chain &#91;1] done processing\n\n=== 2026\ub144 12\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc608\uce21 ===\n        ds    yhat\n2026-01-31 72427.0\n2026-02-28 71676.0\n2026-03-31 73554.0\n2026-04-30 73215.0\n2026-05-31 73204.0\n2026-06-30 73956.0\n2026-07-31 75920.0\n2026-08-31 72707.0\n2026-09-30 73763.0\n2026-10-31 77195.0\n2026-11-30 77517.0\n2026-12-31 80366.0\n\n=== 10\ub144 \ud6c4 \uc0d8\ud50c (2035\ub144) ===\n            ds      yhat\n249 2035-10-31  103689.0\n250 2035-11-30  104461.0\n251 2035-12-31  107207.0<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n<style>.kb-image5479_bd8669-08 .kb-image-has-overlay:after{opacity:0.3;}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-image kb-image5479_bd8669-08\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-medium_large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"768\" height=\"474\" src=\"https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-13-1-768x474.jpg\" alt=\"\uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790 10\ub144\ud6c4 \uc8fc\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd \uadf8\ub798\ud504\" class=\"kb-img wp-image-5484\" srcset=\"https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-13-1-768x474.jpg 768w, https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-13-1-300x185.jpg 300w, https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-13-1-600x371.jpg 600w, https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-13-1-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-13-1.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<style>.kb-image5479_f732f6-be .kb-image-has-overlay:after{opacity:0.3;}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-image kb-image5479_f732f6-be\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-medium_large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"768\" height=\"511\" src=\"https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-13-2-768x511.jpg\" alt=\"\uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790 10\ub144\ud6c4 \uc8fc\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd \uadf8\ub798\ud5042\" class=\"kb-img wp-image-5486\" srcset=\"https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-13-2-768x511.jpg 768w, https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-13-2-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-13-2-600x399.jpg 600w, https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-13-2-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-13-2.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc704 \uadf8\ub798\ud504\uc640 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubd84\uc11d\ub0b4\uc6a9\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.  \ucc38\uace0\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>2026\ub144\uc5d0\ub294 \uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790 \uc8fc\uac00\uac00 \uc644\ub9cc\ud55c \uc6b0\uc0c1\ud5a5, 2035\ub144\uc5d0\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d 30~40% \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900(10\ub9cc \uc6d0\ub300 \ucd08\ubc18)\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud558\ub294 \ubaa8\ub378 \uacb0\uacfc\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uac12\uc740 Prophet\uc774 \uacfc\uac70 2015~2025\ub144 \ud328\ud134\uc744 \uc5f0\uc7a5\ud574 \ubcf8 \ud1b5\uacc4\uc801 \ucd94\uc138\uc77c \ubfd0, \uc2e4\uc81c \ubbf8\ub798 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ubcf4\uc7a5\ud558\uc9c0\ub294 \uc54a\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n## 2026\ub144 \uc608\uce21 \uac12 \ud574\uc11d\n- 2026\ub144 1\uc6d4~12\uc6d4 \uc608\uc0c1 \uc885\uac00\ub294 \uc57d 7.2\ub9cc \uc6d0 \u2192 8.0\ub9cc \uc6d0\uc73c\ub85c, 1\ub144 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc57d 10% \ub0b4\uc678\uc758 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.  \n- \uc5f0\uc911 \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c\uc740 \ub300\ub7b5 7.1\ub9cc~8.0\ub9cc \uc6d0 \uc0ac\uc774\ub85c, \uc0c1\ubc18\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 7\ub9cc \uc6d0\ub300 \uc911\ubc18 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c\ub2e4\uac00 \ud558\ubc18\uae30\ub85c \uac08\uc218\ub85d 7.5\ub9cc~8\ub9cc \uc6d0\uc5d0 \uadfc\uc811\ud558\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.  \n- \uc6d4\ubcc4\ub85c \ubcf4\uba74 2\uc6d4\uc774 \uac00\uc7a5 \ub0ae\uace0(\uc57d 7.17\ub9cc), 12\uc6d4\uc774 \uac00\uc7a5 \ub192\uac8c(\uc57d 8.04\ub9cc) \uc608\uce21\ub418\uc5b4, \uc5f0\ub9d0\ub85c \uac08\uc218\ub85d \uc810\uc9c4\uc801 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ucd94\uc138\ub97c \uac00\uc815\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n## 2035\ub144 \uc608\uce21 \uac12 \ud574\uc11d\n- 10\ub144 \ub4a4\uc778 2035\ub144 \ub9d0\uc5d0\ub294 10\ub9cc \uc6d0 \ucd08\ubc18\ub300\ub97c \uc608\uce21\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.  \n- 2035\ub144 10~12\uc6d4 \uc608\uce21\uce58\ub294 \uac01\uac01 \uc57d 10.37\ub9cc, 10.45\ub9cc, 10.72\ub9cc \uc6d0\uc73c\ub85c, 2035\ub144\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc644\ub9cc\ud55c \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ucd94\uc138\uac00 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub294 \ud615\ud0dc\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.  \n- \ud604\uc7ac \uc2e4\uac70\ub798 \uad6c\uac04(7\ub9cc~8\ub9cc \uc6d0\ub300)\uc744 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uba74, 10\ub144 \ub3d9\uc548 \ub300\ub7b5 30~40% \uc815\ub3c4 \uc6b0\uc0c1\ud5a5\ud558\ub294 \uc7a5\uae30 \uc131\uc7a5 \uc2a4\ud1a0\ub9ac\ub97c \uadf8\ub9b0\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcfc \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n## \uccab \ubc88\uc9f8 \uadf8\ub798\ud504 \ud574\uc11d (\uc804\uccb4 \uc608\uce21)\n- \uac80\uc740 \uc810: 2015\ub144 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc2e4\uc81c \uc6d4\ub9d0 \uc885\uac00(\uad00\uce21\uac12). \uc810\ub4e4\uc774 \ud30c\ub780 \uc120 \uc8fc\ubcc0\uc5d0 \ube44\uad50\uc801 \uc798 \ubd99\uc5b4 \uc788\uc5b4, \uacfc\uac70 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc801\ud569\ub3c4\ub294 \ubb34\ub09c\ud55c \ud3b8\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.  \n- \ud30c\ub780 \uc120: Prophet\uc774 \ucd94\uc815\ud55c \u201c\uc911\uc559 \uc608\uce21\uac12(yhat)\u201d\uc73c\ub85c, 2015\ub144 \uc57d 2\ub9cc \uc6d0\ub300\uc5d0\uc11c 2035\ub144 10\ub9cc \uc6d0 \uc774\uc0c1\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc644\ub9cc\ud558\uac8c \uc62c\ub77c\uac00\ub294 \uc7a5\uae30 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ucd94\uc138\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.  \n- \ud30c\ub780 \uc74c\uc601(\ubc34\ub4dc): \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \ud45c\ud604\ud558\ub294 \uc608\uce21 \uad6c\uac04(yhat_lower~yhat_upper)\ub85c, \ubbf8\ub798\ub85c \uac08\uc218\ub85d \ud3ed\uc774 \ub113\uc5b4\uc9c0\uba70 \u201c\uba40\ub9ac \uac08\uc218\ub85d \uc790\uc2e0\uac10\uc774 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c4\ub2e4\u201d\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc90d\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n## \ub450 \ubc88\uc9f8 \uadf8\ub798\ud504 \ud574\uc11d (\uad6c\uc131\uc694\uc18c)\n- \uc704\ucabd(trend):  \n  - 2015\ub144 \uc774\ud6c4 \uafb8\uc900\ud55c \uc6b0\uc0c1\ud5a5, \ud2b9\ud788 2019~2021\ub144 \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0\uc11c \uae30\uc6b8\uae30\uac00 \ub354 \uac00\ud314\ub77c\uc84c\ub2e4\uac00, \uc774\ud6c4\uc5d0\ub294 \uc57d\uac04 \uc644\ub9cc\ud574\uc9c0\uc9c0\ub9cc \uacc4\uc18d \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\ub294 \ud615\ud0dc\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.  \n  - 2030\ub144 \uc774\ud6c4 \uad6c\uac04\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uac00 \uc5c6\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0, Prophet\uc774 \uc774\uc804 \uad6c\uac04\uc758 \ud3c9\uade0\uc801\uc778 \uae30\uc6b8\uae30\ub97c \uc5f0\uc7a5\ud574 \uc9c1\uc120\uc5d0 \uac00\uae4c\uc6b4 \ucd94\uc138\ub97c \uadf8\ub9bd\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n- \uc544\ub798\ucabd(yearly):  \n  - 1\ub144 \uc548\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5b4\ub290 \ub2ec\uc5d0 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uac15\uc138\/\uc57d\uc138\uac00 \ub098\uc624\ub294\uc9c0 \ube44\uc728(%)\ub85c \ud45c\ud604\ud55c \uc5f0\uac04 \uc2dc\uc98c\uc131\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.  \n  - \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, \ud2b9\uc815 \uc6d4(\uc608: 4~5\uc6d4, 9\uc6d4 \ub4f1)\uc5d0\uc11c 20~30% \uc218\uc900\uc758 \uc591(+)\uc758 \uac12\uc774\uba74 \u201c\uadf8 \ub2ec\uc5d0\ub294 \ud3c9\uade0\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub2e4\ub978 \ub2ec\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc8fc\uac00\uac00 \uac15\ud55c \uacbd\ud5a5\u201d, \uc74c(-)\uc758 \uac12\uc774\uba74 \u201c\uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc57d\ud55c \uacbd\ud5a5\u201d\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.  \n  - \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790 \uac1c\ubcc4 \uc885\ubaa9 \uc8fc\uac00\ub294 \uac70\uc2dc\ud658\uacbd\u00b7\uc5c5\ud669 \uc601\ud5a5\uc774 \ucee4\uc11c, \uc774 \uc5f0\uac04 \ud328\ud134\uc740 \u201c\ud1b5\uacc4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ub7f0 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4\u201d \uc815\ub3c4\ub85c \ucc38\uace0\ub9cc \ud558\ub294 \uc218\uc900\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n## \ud22c\uc790 \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \ubd10\uc57c \ud558\ub294\uc9c0\n- \uc774 \ubaa8\ub378\uc740 \uacfc\uac70 \uac00\uaca9 \ud328\ud134\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c \ubbf8\ub798\ub97c \uc5f0\uc7a5\ud55c **\ud1b5\uacc4\uc801 \uc2dc\ubbac\ub808\uc774\uc158**\uc774\ub77c, \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074, EPS \uc131\uc7a5, \ud658\uc728, \uacbd\uc7c1\uc0ac, \uc9c0\uc815\ud559 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ub4f1\uc740 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.  \n- \u201c10\ub144 \ub4a4 10\ub9cc \uc6d0 \ucd08\ubc18\ub300\u201d\ub77c\ub294 \uc218\uce58\ub294 \uc808\ub300\uc801\uc778 \ubaa9\ud45c\uac00\ub77c\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4, \u201c\uacfc\uac70 10\ub144\uacfc \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \uc131\uc7a5\/\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c4\ub2e4\uba74 \uc774 \uc815\ub3c4 \uada4\uc801\uc774 \ub098\uc62c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\u201d\ub294 \uac00\uc815 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub85c \ubcf4\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc548\uc804\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5) \ubc31\ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8(\uac80\uc99d): \u201c\ucd5c\uadfc 1\ub144\u201d\uc744 \ub9de\ud600\ubcf4\uba74 \uc2e0\ub8b0\uac00 \uc0dd\uae34\ub2e4<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc7a5\uae30 \uc608\uce21\uc744 \ubcf4\uae30 \uc804\uc5d0, \ucd5c\uc18c\ud55c <strong>\ucd5c\uadfc 12\uac1c\uc6d4<\/strong>\uc744 \ub5bc\uc5b4\ub0b4\uc11c \ub9de\ud600\ubcf4\uc138\uc694.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code language-python\"><code>import yfinance as yf\nimport pandas as pd\nimport numpy as np\nfrom prophet import Prophet\nimport matplotlib.pyplot as plt\nfrom matplotlib import rc\nimport platform\nimport warnings\nwarnings.filterwarnings('ignore')\n\n# -------------------------------\n# 0. \ud55c\uae00 \ud3f0\ud2b8 \uc124\uc815\n# -------------------------------\nif platform.system() == \"Darwin\":       # macOS\n    rc('font', family='AppleGothic')\nelif platform.system() == \"Windows\":    # Windows\n    rc('font', family='Malgun Gothic')\nelse:                                   # Linux\n    rc('font', family='NanumGothic')\n\nplt.rcParams&#91;'axes.unicode_minus'] = False\n\n# -------------------------------\n# 1. \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ub2e4\uc6b4\ub85c\ub4dc \ubc0f \uc6d4\ub9d0 \ubcc0\ud658\n# -------------------------------\nticker = \"005930.KS\"\ndf = yf.download(ticker, start=\"2015-01-01\", auto_adjust=True, progress=False)\n\n# \uba40\ud2f0\uc778\ub371\uc2a4 \uceec\ub7fc \ub300\ube44: \ud3c9\ud0c4\ud654\nif isinstance(df.columns, pd.MultiIndex):\n    df.columns = &#91;'_'.join(&#91;str(c) for c in col if c != '']) for col in df.columns]\n\n# \uc885\uac00 \uceec\ub7fc \ud0d0\uc0c9 (Close, Close_005930.KS \ub4f1)\nclose_col = None\nfor c in df.columns:\n    if c.startswith('Close'):\n        close_col = c\n        break\nif close_col is None:\n    raise ValueError(f\"Close \uceec\ub7fc\uc744 \ucc3e\uc744 \uc218 \uc5c6\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac \uceec\ub7fc: {df.columns}\")\n\nprice = df&#91;&#91;close_col]].copy()\nprice.columns = &#91;'y']          # Prophet\uc6a9 \uc774\ub984\nprice.index.name = 'ds'\nprice = price.dropna()\n\nprint(f\"\uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790 \uc8fc\uac00 \ub370\uc774\ud130: {len(price)} \uc77c\")\n\n# \uc6d4\ub9d0 \uc885\uac00\ub85c \ub9ac\uc0d8\ud50c\nmonthly = price.resample('ME').last().copy()\nmonthly.reset_index(inplace=True)       # ds \uceec\ub7fc\nmonthly&#91;'ds'] = pd.to_datetime(monthly&#91;'ds'])\nmonthly&#91;'y'] = monthly&#91;'y'].astype(float)\nmonthly = monthly&#91;&#91;'ds', 'y']]\n\nprint(f\"\uc6d4 \ub370\uc774\ud130: {len(monthly)} \uac1c\uc6d4\")\n\nmonthly.to_csv(\"samsung_stock_prices_monthly.csv\", index=False)\n\n# -------------------------------\n# 2. \uc804\uccb4 \uae30\uac04 \ud559\uc2b5 + 10\ub144 \uc608\uce21\n# -------------------------------\nm = Prophet(\n    yearly_seasonality=True,\n    weekly_seasonality=False,\n    daily_seasonality=False,\n    changepoint_prior_scale=0.2,\n    seasonality_mode=\"multiplicative\"\n)\nm.fit(monthly)\n\nfuture = m.make_future_dataframe(periods=120, freq=\"ME\")\nfcst = m.predict(future)\nfcst.to_csv(\"samsung_prophet_forecast.csv\", index=False)\n\nprint(\"\\n=== 2026\ub144 12\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc608\uce21 ===\")\nnext_year = fcst&#91;\n    (fcst&#91;'ds'] >= '2026-01-01') &amp; (fcst&#91;'ds'] &lt;= '2026-12-31')\n]&#91;&#91;'ds', 'yhat']].round(0)\nprint(next_year.to_string(index=False))\n\nprint(\"\\n=== 10\ub144 \ud6c4 \uc0d8\ud50c (2035\ub144) ===\")\nsample_2035 = fcst&#91;\n    (fcst&#91;'ds'] >= '2035-10-01') &amp; (fcst&#91;'ds'] &lt;= '2035-12-31')\n]&#91;&#91;'ds', 'yhat']].round(0)\nprint(sample_2035.to_string(index=False))\n\nprint(\"\\n\u2705 \uc7a5\uae30 \uc608\uce21 \uc644\ub8cc: samsung_prophet_forecast.csv \uc800\uc7a5\")\n\n# -------------------------------\n# 3. \ubc31\ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8: \ucd5c\uadfc 12\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc131\ub2a5\n# -------------------------------\nprint(\"\\n=== \ucd5c\uadfc 12\uac1c\uc6d4 \ubc31\ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8 ===\")\n\ntrain = monthly.iloc&#91;:-12].copy()\ntest = monthly.iloc&#91;-12:].copy()\n\nm_bt = Prophet(\n    yearly_seasonality=True,\n    weekly_seasonality=False,\n    daily_seasonality=False,\n    changepoint_prior_scale=0.2,\n    seasonality_mode=\"multiplicative\"\n)\nm_bt.fit(train)\n\nfuture_bt = m_bt.make_future_dataframe(periods=12, freq=\"ME\")\npred_bt = m_bt.predict(future_bt)\n\nbt = test.merge(pred_bt&#91;&#91;'ds', 'yhat']], on='ds', how='left')\n\nmae = np.mean(np.abs(bt&#91;'y'] - bt&#91;'yhat']))\nmape = np.mean(np.abs((bt&#91;'y'] - bt&#91;'yhat']) \/ bt&#91;'y'])) * 100\n\nprint(f\"Backtest MAE : {mae:,.0f} KRW\")\nprint(f\"Backtest MAPE: {mape:.2f} %\")\nprint(\"\\n\ubc31\ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8 \uc2e4\uc81c vs \uc608\uce21:\")\nprint(bt.tail(12).round(0))\n\nbt.to_csv(\"samsung_prophet_backtest.csv\", index=False)\n\n# -------------------------------\n# 4. \uadf8\ub798\ud504 \uc800\uc7a5\n# -------------------------------\nfig1 = m.plot(fcst)\nplt.title(\"\uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790 \uc8fc\uac00 Prophet \uc608\uce21 (2015-2035)\")\nplt.savefig(\"samsung_forecast.png\", dpi=300, bbox_inches='tight')\nplt.close()\n\nfig2 = m.plot_components(fcst)\nplt.savefig(\"samsung_forecast_components.png\", dpi=300, bbox_inches='tight')\nplt.close()\n\nprint(\"\\n\ud83d\udcca \uc608\uce21 \uadf8\ub798\ud504: samsung_forecast.png\")\nprint(\"\ud83d\udcca \uad6c\uc131\uc694\uc18c \uadf8\ub798\ud504: samsung_forecast_components.png\")\nprint(\"\ud83d\udcca \ubc31\ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8 \uacb0\uacfc: samsung_prophet_backtest.csv\")\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc704 \ucf54\ub4dc \uc2e4\ud589\uacb0\uacfc\uc640 \uadf8 \uacb0\uacfc\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud574\uc11d\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>\uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790 \uc8fc\uac00 \ub370\uc774\ud130: 2687 \uc77c\n\uc6d4 \ub370\uc774\ud130: 132 \uac1c\uc6d4\n19:25:24 - cmdstanpy - INFO - Chain &#91;1] start processing\n19:25:24 - cmdstanpy - INFO - Chain &#91;1] done processing\n\n=== 2026\ub144 12\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc608\uce21 ===\n        ds    yhat\n2026-01-31 72642.0\n2026-02-28 71929.0\n2026-03-31 73870.0\n2026-04-30 73349.0\n2026-05-31 73183.0\n2026-06-30 74178.0\n2026-07-31 76386.0\n2026-08-31 72979.0\n2026-09-30 73886.0\n2026-10-31 77426.0\n2026-11-30 77644.0\n2026-12-31 80679.0\n\n=== 10\ub144 \ud6c4 \uc0d8\ud50c (2035\ub144) ===\n        ds     yhat\n2035-10-31 104644.0\n2035-11-30 105111.0\n2035-12-31 108483.0\n\n\u2705 \uc7a5\uae30 \uc608\uce21 \uc644\ub8cc: samsung_prophet_forecast.csv \uc800\uc7a5\n\n=== \ucd5c\uadfc 12\uac1c\uc6d4 \ubc31\ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8 ===\n19:25:24 - cmdstanpy - INFO - Chain &#91;1] start processing\n19:25:25 - cmdstanpy - INFO - Chain &#91;1] done processing\nBacktest MAE : 19,571 KRW\nBacktest MAPE: 27.35 %\n\n\ubc31\ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8 \uc2e4\uc81c vs \uc608\uce21:\n           ds         y     yhat\n0  2025-01-31   51543.0  79594.0\n1  2025-02-28   53609.0  72177.0\n2  2025-03-31   57192.0  73796.0\n3  2025-04-30   54917.0  72672.0\n4  2025-05-31   55609.0  71600.0\n5  2025-06-30   59534.0  73458.0\n6  2025-07-31   71083.0  75167.0\n7  2025-08-31   69390.0  71060.0\n8  2025-09-30   83900.0  68014.0\n9  2025-10-31  107500.0  67275.0\n10 2025-11-30  100500.0  68535.0\n11 2025-12-31  102800.0  72665.0<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>\uc774\ubc88 \uacb0\uacfc\ub294 \uc774\uc804\uc5d0 \ubcf8 \uacb0\uacfc\uc640 **\ud328\ud134\uc740 \uac70\uc758 \ub3d9\uc77c\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc218\uc900(level)\uc774 \uc57d\uac04 \ub354 \ub192\uac8c \uc7a1\ud78c \ubaa8\ub378**\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubcf4\uba74 \ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. 2026\ub144\u00b72035\ub144 \uc608\uce21 \uc218\uce58\ub294 \uc18c\ud3ed \uc0c1\ud5a5\ub418\uc5c8\uace0, \ubc31\ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \u201c\ucd5c\uadfc 1\ub144\uc740 \uaf64 \ud06c\uac8c \uacfc\uc18c\ucd94\uc138(underfit)\u201d\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\ub3c4 \ud655\uc778\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \n\n## 2026\ub144 \uc608\uce21: \uc774\uc804 \uacb0\uacfc\uc640 \ube44\uad50\n- \uc608\uc804 \ud574\uc11d\uc5d0\uc11c 2026\ub144 \uc608\uce21\uc740 \ub300\ub7b5 7.2\ub9cc \u2192 8.0\ub9cc \uad6c\uac04\uc73c\ub85c \uc5f0\uac04 \uc57d 10% \uc0c1\uc2b9, \uc774\ubc88 \uacb0\uacfc\ub294 7.26\ub9cc \u2192 8.07\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c **\uc218\ubc31~\uc218\ucc9c \uc6d0 \uc815\ub3c4\ub9cc \uc704\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c\uac04 \uc218\uc900**\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.  \n- 1~12\uc6d4 \ud750\ub984 \uc790\uccb4\ub294 \uac70\uc758 \uac19\uace0,  \n  - 2\uc6d4\uc774 \uac00\uc7a5 \ub0ae\uace0(71,929\uc6d0),  \n  - 12\uc6d4\uc774 \uac00\uc7a5 \ub192\uc73c\uba70(80,679\uc6d0),  \n  - \uc0c1\ubc18\uae30 7\ub9cc \uc911\ubc18, \ud558\ubc18\uae30 7.6\ub9cc~8\ub9cc \uadfc\ucc98\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c\uac00\ub294 **\uc644\ub9cc\ud55c \uc6b0\uc0c1\ud5a5** \ud328\ud134\uc740 \uadf8\ub300\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.  \n- \uc989, \u201c2026\ub144 \ud55c \ud574 \ub3d9\uc548 7.1\ub9cc~8.0\ub9cc \uc0ac\uc774 \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c, \uc5f0\ub9d0\uc774 \uc5f0\ucd08\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d 10~12% \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\u201d\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc774\uc804 \ud574\uc11d\uacfc \uc77c\uad00\ub41c \uacb0\uacfc\uc774\uace0, \uc0c8 \ubaa8\ub378\uc740 \uc774\ub97c \uc57d\uac04 \ub354 \ub099\uad00\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\ub294 \uc815\ub3c4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n## 2035\ub144 \uc608\uce21: \uc7a5\uae30 \ub808\ubca8\ub9cc \uc0b4\uc9dd \uc0c1\ud5a5\n- \uc608\uc804 \uc124\uba85\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 2035\ub144 \ub9d0\uc774 \u201c10\ub9cc \uc6d0 \ucd08\ubc18\ub300(10.3\ub9cc~10.7\ub9cc \uc815\ub3c4)\u201d\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ub418\uc5c8\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ubc88 \uacb0\uacfc\ub294  \n  - 10\uc6d4: 104,644\uc6d0  \n  - 11\uc6d4: 105,111\uc6d0  \n  - 12\uc6d4: 108,483\uc6d0  \n  \uc73c\ub85c, **\uc5ec\uc804\ud788 10\ub9cc \ucd08\ubc18~\uc911\ubc18 \uad6c\uac04**\uc5d0 \uc704\uce58\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.  \n- \uc989, \u201c10\ub144 \ub4a4 10\ub9cc \ucd08\ubc18\ub300, \ud604\uc7ac(7\ub9cc~8\ub9cc\ub300) \ub300\ube44 30~40% \uc0c1\uc2b9\u201d\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc7a5\uae30 \uc2a4\ud1a0\ub9ac\ub294 \uadf8\ub300\ub85c\uace0, \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9 \ub2ec(12\uc6d4)\uc774 10.8\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c \uc57d\uac04 \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \uc815\ub3c4\ub77c \uc774\uc804 \ub300\ube44 **\uc544\uc8fc \uc870\uae08 \ub354 \uac15\ud55c \uc7a5\uae30 \uc6b0\uc0c1\ud5a5**\uc744 \uadf8\ub9bd\ub2c8\ub2e4.  \n\n## \ubc31\ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8 \uacb0\uacfc \ud574\uc11d (\uc774\ubc88\uc5d0 \uc0c8\ub85c \ucd94\uac00\ub41c \ud575\uc2ec)\n- MAE 19,571\uc6d0, MAPE 27.35%\ub294 **\ucd5c\uadfc 1\ub144 \uc6d4\ub9d0 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud560 \ub54c \ud3c9\uade0\uc801\uc73c\ub85c 20%\ub300 \ud6c4\ubc18 \uc624\ucc28**\uac00 \ub0ac\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.  \n  - \uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790\uac00 5\ub9cc~10\ub9cc \uc6d0 \uc0ac\uc774\ub97c \ud06c\uac8c \uc624\ub974\ub0b4\ub9b0 \uad6c\uac04\uc774\ub77c \uc808\ub300 \uc624\ucc28(1.9\ub9cc \uc6d0)\ub294 \uaf64 \ud070 \ud3b8\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.  \n- \uc2e4\uc81c vs \uc608\uce21\uc744 \ubcf4\uba74:\n  - 2025\ub144 \ucd08 (1~6\uc6d4): \uc2e4\uc81c 5\ub9cc~6\ub9cc \uc6d0\ub300\uc778\ub370 \uc608\uce21\uc740 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84 7\ub9cc \uc774\uc0c1 \u2192 **\uc2e4\uc81c\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub192\uac8c \ubcf4\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5**.  \n  - 2025\ub144 9~12\uc6d4: \uc2e4\uc81c\uac00 8.4\ub9cc \u2192 10\ub9cc \ud6c4\ubc18\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae09\ub4f1\ud588\ub294\ub370, \uc608\uce21\uc740 6.7\ub9cc~7.2\ub9cc \uadfc\ucc98 \u2192 **\uc2e4\uc81c \uae09\ub4f1\uc744 \uc804\ud600 \ubabb \ub530\ub77c\uac00\uace0, \ucd94\uc138\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud55c\ucc38 \ub0ae\uac8c \uc608\uce21**.  \n- \uc694\uc57d\ud558\uba74:\n  - \ubaa8\ub378\uc740 \u201c\uc644\ub9cc\ud55c \uc6b0\uc0c1\ud5a5 + \ubd80\ub4dc\ub7ec\uc6b4 \uacc4\uc808 \ud328\ud134\u201d\uc5d0\ub294 \uac15\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc,  \n  - 2025\ub144 \uac19\uc740 **\uae09\ub77d\u00b7\uae09\ub4f1 \uad6c\uac04(\ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uc5c5\ud669 \uae09\ubc18\uc804, AI \uc218\uc694 \ud3ed\ubc1c \ub4f1)**\uc740 \uac70\uc758 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.  \n  - \uadf8\ub798\uc11c \u201c\uc7a5\uae30 \ud3c9\uade0 \uacbd\ub85c\ub97c \ubcf4\ub294 \ucc38\uace0\uc6a9\u201d\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uad1c\ucc2e\uc9c0\ub9cc, \u201c\ub2e8\uae30(1\ub144 \uc774\ub0b4) \ub9e4\uc218\/\ub9e4\ub3c4 \ud0c0\uc774\ubc0d\u201d \ud310\ub2e8\uc5d0\ub294 \uadf8\ub300\ub85c \uc4f0\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc774 \ubc31\ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub85c \ub4dc\ub7ec\ub09c \uc148\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n## \uc774\uc804 \uacb0\uacfc\uc640\uc758 \uc885\ud569 \ube44\uad50 \uc815\ub9ac\n| \ud56d\ubaa9                 | \uc774\uc804 \ud574\uc11d \uae30\ubc18 \ubaa8\ub378 \ub290\ub08c                | \uc774\ubc88 \uacb0\uacfc                             |\n|----------------------|----------------------------------------|----------------------------------------|\n| 2026\ub144 \uc5f0\ucd08 \uc218\uc900     | \uc57d 72,000\uc6d0 \uc804\ud6c4                       | 72,642\uc6d0 (\uac70\uc758 \ub3d9\uc77c, \uc18c\ud3ed \uc0c1\ud5a5)      |\n| 2026\ub144 \uc5f0\ub9d0 \uc218\uc900     | \uc57d 80,000\uc6d0 \uc804\ud6c4                       | 80,679\uc6d0 (\uac70\uc758 \ub3d9\uc77c, \uc218\ubc31 \uc6d0 \uc99d\uac00)   |\n| 2035\ub144 12\uc6d4 \uc218\uc900     | \uc57d 103,000~107,000\uc6d0 \ud574\uc11d              | 108,483\uc6d0 (\uc870\uae08 \ub354 \ub099\uad00\uc801)           |\n| \uc7a5\uae30 \ucd94\uc138 \ubc29\ud5a5       | \uc644\ub9cc\ud55c \uc6b0\uc0c1\ud5a5, 10\ub144 30~40% \uc0c1\uc2b9       | \ub3d9\uc77c, \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc0c1\ub2e8\uc774 \uc57d\uac04 \ub354 \ub192\uac8c \ud615\uc131 |\n| \ubc31\ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8 \uc9c0\ud45c        | (\uc774\uc804\uc5d4 \uc5c6\uc5c8\uc74c)                        | MAE 1.96\ub9cc, MAPE 27.35%              |\n| \ubc31\ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8 \ud574\uc11d        | \u2013                                      | \ucd5c\uadfc \uae09\ub4f1 \uad6c\uac04\uc744 \ud06c\uac8c \uacfc\uc18c\ucd94\uc815       |\n\n\uc815\ub9ac\ud558\uba74, **\uc7a5\uae30 \ucd94\uc138\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2a4\ud1a0\ub9ac\ub294 \uadf8\ub300\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\uba74\uc11c, \uc0c8 \ucf54\ub4dc\/\ub370\uc774\ud130 \ucc98\ub9ac\ub85c \uc608\uce21 \ub808\ubca8\uc774 \uc544\uc8fc \uc57d\uac04 \uc0c1\ud5a5\ub41c \uc0c1\ud0dc**\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubc31\ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8 \uc218\uce58(MAPE 27%)\ub97c \ubcf4\uba74 \u201c\ucd5c\uadfc 1\ub144\uc744 \ub9de\ucd94\ub294 \ub2a5\ub825\uc740 \uadf8\ub9ac \ub192\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4\u201d\ub294 \uac83\ub3c4 \uc22b\uc790\ub85c \ud655\uc778\ub410\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0,  \n- \uc7a5\uae30 \ud22c\uc790 \uc544\uc774\ub514\uc5b4\ub97c \uadf8\ub824\ubcf4\ub294 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 \ub3c4\uad6c\ub85c\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8 \uc788\uace0,  \n- \uc2e4\uc81c \ub9e4\uc218\u00b7\ub9e4\ub3c4 \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ud560 \ub54c\ub294 \uc774 \ubaa8\ub378\ub9cc \uc758\uc874\ud558\uc9c0 \ub9d0\uace0, \uc5c5\ud669\u00b7\uc2e4\uc801\u00b7\ubc38\ub958\uc5d0\uc774\uc158 \ub4f1 \ud380\ub354\uba58\ud138\uacfc \uac19\uc774 \ubcf4\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc548\uc804\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">6) \uacb0\uacfc \ud574\uc11d: Base \/ Bull \/ Bear \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub85c \uc815\ub9ac\ud558\uae30<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prophet\uc740 <code>yhat<\/code>(\uc911\uc559\uac12), <code>yhat_lower<\/code>, <code>yhat_upper<\/code>(\ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131 \uad6c\uac04)\uc744 \uc90d\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc911\uc694: \uc774 \uad6c\uac04\uc740 \u201c\ubaa8\ub378 \ucd94\uc815\uc758 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\u201d\uc774\uc9c0, \u201c\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae09\ubcc0\/\uc704\uae30\/\ud638\ud669\u201d\uae4c\uc9c0 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \uc644\uc804\ud55c \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \ubc94\uc704\ub294 \uc544\ub2d9\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code language-python\"><code>import yfinance as yf\nimport pandas as pd\nimport numpy as np\nfrom prophet import Prophet\nimport matplotlib.pyplot as plt\nfrom matplotlib import rc\nimport platform\nimport warnings\nwarnings.filterwarnings('ignore')\n\n# -------------------------------\n# 0. \ud55c\uae00 \ud3f0\ud2b8 \uc124\uc815\n# -------------------------------\nif platform.system() == \"Darwin\":       # macOS\n    rc('font', family='AppleGothic')\nelif platform.system() == \"Windows\":    # Windows\n    rc('font', family='Malgun Gothic')\nelse:                                   # Linux\n    rc('font', family='NanumGothic')\n\nplt.rcParams&#91;'axes.unicode_minus'] = False\n\n# -------------------------------\n# 1. \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ub2e4\uc6b4\ub85c\ub4dc \ubc0f \uc6d4\ub9d0 \ubcc0\ud658\n# -------------------------------\nticker = \"005930.KS\"\ndf = yf.download(ticker, start=\"2015-01-01\", auto_adjust=True, progress=False)\n\n# \uba40\ud2f0\uc778\ub371\uc2a4 \uceec\ub7fc \ub300\ube44: \ud3c9\ud0c4\ud654\nif isinstance(df.columns, pd.MultiIndex):\n    df.columns = &#91;'_'.join(&#91;str(c) for c in col if c != '']) for col in df.columns]\n\n# \uc885\uac00 \uceec\ub7fc \ud0d0\uc0c9 (Close, Close_005930.KS \ub4f1)\nclose_col = None\nfor c in df.columns:\n    if c.startswith('Close'):\n        close_col = c\n        break\nif close_col is None:\n    raise ValueError(f\"Close \uceec\ub7fc\uc744 \ucc3e\uc744 \uc218 \uc5c6\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac \uceec\ub7fc: {df.columns}\")\n\nprice = df&#91;&#91;close_col]].copy()\nprice.columns = &#91;'y']          # Prophet\uc6a9 \uc774\ub984\nprice.index.name = 'ds'\nprice = price.dropna()\n\nprint(f\"\uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790 \uc8fc\uac00 \ub370\uc774\ud130: {len(price)} \uc77c\")\n\n# \uc6d4\ub9d0 \uc885\uac00\ub85c \ub9ac\uc0d8\ud50c\nmonthly = price.resample('ME').last().copy()\nmonthly.reset_index(inplace=True)       # ds \uceec\ub7fc\nmonthly&#91;'ds'] = pd.to_datetime(monthly&#91;'ds'])\nmonthly&#91;'y'] = monthly&#91;'y'].astype(float)\nmonthly = monthly&#91;&#91;'ds', 'y']]\n\nprint(f\"\uc6d4 \ub370\uc774\ud130: {len(monthly)} \uac1c\uc6d4\")\n\nmonthly.to_csv(\"samsung_stock_prices_monthly.csv\", index=False)\n\n# -------------------------------\n# 2. \uc804\uccb4 \uae30\uac04 \ud559\uc2b5 + 10\ub144 \uc608\uce21\n# -------------------------------\nm = Prophet(\n    yearly_seasonality=True,\n    weekly_seasonality=False,\n    daily_seasonality=False,\n    changepoint_prior_scale=0.2,\n    seasonality_mode=\"multiplicative\"\n)\nm.fit(monthly)\n\nfuture = m.make_future_dataframe(periods=120, freq=\"ME\")\nfcst = m.predict(future)\nfcst.to_csv(\"samsung_prophet_forecast.csv\", index=False)\n\nprint(\"\\n=== 2026\ub144 12\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc608\uce21 ===\")\nnext_year = fcst&#91;\n    (fcst&#91;'ds'] >= '2026-01-01') &amp; (fcst&#91;'ds'] &lt;= '2026-12-31')\n]&#91;&#91;'ds', 'yhat']].round(0)\nprint(next_year.to_string(index=False))\n\nprint(\"\\n=== 10\ub144 \ud6c4 \uc0d8\ud50c (2035\ub144) ===\")\nsample_2035 = fcst&#91;\n    (fcst&#91;'ds'] >= '2035-10-01') &amp; (fcst&#91;'ds'] &lt;= '2035-12-31')\n]&#91;&#91;'ds', 'yhat']].round(0)\nprint(sample_2035.to_string(index=False))\n\nprint(\"\\n\u2705 \uc7a5\uae30 \uc608\uce21 \uc644\ub8cc: samsung_prophet_forecast.csv \uc800\uc7a5\")\n\n# -------------------------------\n# 3. 10\ub144 \ud6c4 Bear \/ Base \/ Bull \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\n# -------------------------------\nend = fcst.iloc&#91;-1]   # \uc608\uce21 \uad6c\uac04 \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9 \ud589 (\ub300\ub7b5 10\ub144 \ud6c4)\n\nbase = end&#91;\"yhat\"]\nbear = end&#91;\"yhat_lower\"]\nbull = end&#91;\"yhat_upper\"]\n\nprint(\"\\n=== 10Y Scenario (Model Uncertainty Band) ===\")\nprint(f\"Bear : \u20a9{bear:,.0f}\")\nprint(f\"Base : \u20a9{base:,.0f}\")\nprint(f\"Bull : \u20a9{bull:,.0f}\")\n\n# \u26a0\ufe0f \uc8fc\uc758: \uc774 \uad6c\uac04\uc740 Prophet \ucd94\uc815\uc758 \ud1b5\uacc4\uc801 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc77c \ubfd0,\n#         \uc2e4\uc81c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc704\uae30\/\ud638\ud669\uae4c\uc9c0 \ud3ec\ud568\ud558\ub294 '\ucd5c\uc545\/\ucd5c\uc120' \ubc94\uc704\ub294 \uc544\ub2d8.\n\n# -------------------------------\n# 4. \ubc31\ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8: \ucd5c\uadfc 12\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc131\ub2a5\n# -------------------------------\nprint(\"\\n=== \ucd5c\uadfc 12\uac1c\uc6d4 \ubc31\ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8 ===\")\n\ntrain = monthly.iloc&#91;:-12].copy()\ntest = monthly.iloc&#91;-12:].copy()\n\nm_bt = Prophet(\n    yearly_seasonality=True,\n    weekly_seasonality=False,\n    daily_seasonality=False,\n    changepoint_prior_scale=0.2,\n    seasonality_mode=\"multiplicative\"\n)\nm_bt.fit(train)\n\nfuture_bt = m_bt.make_future_dataframe(periods=12, freq=\"ME\")\npred_bt = m_bt.predict(future_bt)\n\nbt = test.merge(pred_bt&#91;&#91;'ds', 'yhat']], on='ds', how='left')\n\nmae = np.mean(np.abs(bt&#91;'y'] - bt&#91;'yhat']))\nmape = np.mean(np.abs((bt&#91;'y'] - bt&#91;'yhat']) \/ bt&#91;'y'])) * 100\n\nprint(f\"Backtest MAE : {mae:,.0f} KRW\")\nprint(f\"Backtest MAPE: {mape:.2f} %\")\nprint(\"\\n\ubc31\ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8 \uc2e4\uc81c vs \uc608\uce21:\")\nprint(bt.tail(12).round(0))\n\nbt.to_csv(\"samsung_prophet_backtest.csv\", index=False)\n\n# -------------------------------\n# 5. \uadf8\ub798\ud504 \uc800\uc7a5\n# -------------------------------\nfig1 = m.plot(fcst)\nplt.title(\"\uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790 \uc8fc\uac00 Prophet \uc608\uce21 (2015-2035)\")\nplt.savefig(\"samsung_forecast.png\", dpi=300, bbox_inches='tight')\nplt.close()\n\nfig2 = m.plot_components(fcst)\nplt.savefig(\"samsung_forecast_components.png\", dpi=300, bbox_inches='tight')\nplt.close()\n\nprint(\"\\n\ud83d\udcca \uc608\uce21 \uadf8\ub798\ud504: samsung_forecast.png\")\nprint(\"\ud83d\udcca \uad6c\uc131\uc694\uc18c \uadf8\ub798\ud504: samsung_forecast_components.png\")\nprint(\"\ud83d\udcca \ubc31\ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8 \uacb0\uacfc: samsung_prophet_backtest.csv\")\nprint(\"\ud83d\udcca \uc804\uccb4 \uc608\uce21: samsung_prophet_forecast.csv\")\n<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc704 \ucf54\ub4dc \uc2e4\ud589 \ubc0f \ud574\uc11d \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>\uc6d4 \ub370\uc774\ud130: 132 \uac1c\uc6d4\n19:31:46 - cmdstanpy - INFO - Chain &#91;1] start processing\n19:31:46 - cmdstanpy - INFO - Chain &#91;1] done processing\n\n=== 2026\ub144 12\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc608\uce21 ===\n        ds    yhat\n2026-01-31 72579.0\n2026-02-28 71863.0\n2026-03-31 73799.0\n2026-04-30 73306.0\n2026-05-31 73148.0\n2026-06-30 74130.0\n2026-07-31 76319.0\n2026-08-31 72919.0\n2026-09-30 73832.0\n2026-10-31 77373.0\n2026-11-30 77593.0\n2026-12-31 80651.0\n\n=== 10\ub144 \ud6c4 \uc0d8\ud50c (2035\ub144) ===\n        ds     yhat\n2035-10-31 104485.0\n2035-11-30 104967.0\n2035-12-31 108341.0\n\n\u2705 \uc7a5\uae30 \uc608\uce21 \uc644\ub8cc: samsung_prophet_forecast.csv \uc800\uc7a5\n\n=== 10Y Scenario (Model Uncertainty Band) ===\nBear : \u20a991,449\nBase : \u20a9108,341\nBull : \u20a9124,798\n\n=== \ucd5c\uadfc 12\uac1c\uc6d4 \ubc31\ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8 ===\n19:31:46 - cmdstanpy - INFO - Chain &#91;1] start processing\n19:31:46 - cmdstanpy - INFO - Chain &#91;1] done processing\nBacktest MAE : 19,126 KRW\nBacktest MAPE: 26.30 %\n\n\ubc31\ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8 \uc2e4\uc81c vs \uc608\uce21:\n           ds         y     yhat\n0  2025-01-31   51543.0  77117.0\n1  2025-02-28   53609.0  71186.0\n2  2025-03-31   57192.0  72793.0\n3  2025-04-30   54917.0  71737.0\n4  2025-05-31   55609.0  70673.0\n5  2025-06-30   59534.0  72321.0\n6  2025-07-31   71083.0  73744.0\n7  2025-08-31   69390.0  69675.0\n8  2025-09-30   83900.0  66733.0\n9  2025-10-31  107500.0  66071.0\n10 2025-11-30  100500.0  67403.0\n11 2025-12-31  102800.0  71352.0<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>2026\ub144\uacfc 10\ub144 \ub4a4 \uc8fc\uac00 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \u201c\uc644\ub9cc\ud55c \uc6b0\uc0c1\ud5a5 + \ud1b5\uacc4\uc801 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\u201d\ub85c \uc798 \uc694\uc57d\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2e8, \ucd5c\uadfc 1\ub144 \uc608\uce21 \uc815\ud655\ub3c4\ub294 \ub192\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc544 \ub2e8\uae30 \ub9e4\ub9e4\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294 \uc7a5\uae30 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 \ucc38\uace0\uc6a9\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\ub294 \uac8c \uc801\uc808\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n## 2026\ub144 \uc608\uce21 \uc694\uc57d\n- 2026\ub144 1~12\uc6d4 \uc608\uc0c1 \uc8fc\uac00\ub294 \uc57d 7.2\ub9cc \uc6d0\uc5d0\uc11c 8.1\ub9cc \uc6d0 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c, 1\ub144 \ub3d9\uc548 \ub300\ub7b5 10% \uc815\ub3c4 \uc6b0\uc0c1\ud5a5\ud558\ub294 \uadf8\ub9bc\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.  \n- \uc5f0\uc911 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84 7\ub9cc \uc6d0\ub300 \uc911\ud6c4\ubc18\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub2e4\uac00, \uc5f0\ub9d0(12\uc6d4)\uc5d0 \uc57d 8.06\ub9cc \uc6d0\uc73c\ub85c \ub9c8\uac10\ud558\ub294 \uc644\ub9cc\ud55c \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ud328\ud134\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.  \n\n## 2035\ub144 \ub9d0 \uc218\uc900\uacfc 10\ub144 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\n- 2035\ub144 10~12\uc6d4\uc740 \uc57d 10.4\ub9cc~10.8\ub9cc \uc6d0 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c, \ud604\uc7ac(7\ub9cc~8\ub9cc\ub300)\ubcf4\ub2e4 10\ub144\uac04 30~40% \uc815\ub3c4 \uc624\ub978 \uc7a5\uae30 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \uac00\uc815\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.  \n- 10\ub144 \ub4a4 \ud55c \uc810(\ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9 \ub2ec)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ubaa8\ub378\uc774 \uc8fc\ub294 \uad6c\uac04\uc740  \n  - Bear(\ubcf4\uc218\uc801 \ud558\ub2e8): \uc57d 9.1\ub9cc \uc6d0  \n  - Base(\uc911\uc559\uac12): \uc57d 10.8\ub9cc \uc6d0  \n  - Bull(\ub099\uad00\uc801 \uc0c1\ub2e8): \uc57d 12.5\ub9cc \uc6d0  \n  \uc73c\ub85c, **\u201cProphet \ubaa8\ub378\uc774 \ucd94\uc815\ud55c \ud1b5\uacc4\uc801 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131 \ubc94\uc704\u201d**\uc774\uc9c0, \uc2e4\uc81c \uc704\uae30\u00b7\ucd08\ud638\ud669\uae4c\uc9c0 \ubaa8\ub450 \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c \ucd5c\uc545\/\ucd5c\uc120 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub294 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c\ub294 \uc810\uc774 \uc911\uc694\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.  \n\n## \ucd5c\uadfc 12\uac1c\uc6d4 \ubc31\ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8 \uc758\ubbf8\n- MAE \uc57d 19,000\uc6d0, MAPE 26.3%\ub294 \ucd5c\uadfc 1\ub144 \uc6d4\ub9d0 \uc885\uac00\ub97c \uc608\uce21\ud560 \ub54c \ud3c9\uade0\uc801\uc73c\ub85c 25% \uc548\ud30e\uc758 \uc624\ucc28\uac00 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.  \n- \uc2e4\uc81c 2025\ub144 \ud6c4\ubc18\uc5d0 8\ub9cc~10\ub9cc \uc6d0\ub300\ub85c \uae09\ub4f1\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ubaa8\ub378\uc740 6.6\ub9cc~7.3\ub9cc \uc6d0 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c\ub7ec **\uae09\ub4f1 \uad6c\uac04\uc744 \ud06c\uac8c \uacfc\uc18c\ucd94\uc815**\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.  \n- \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uc774 \ubaa8\ub378\uc740 \u201c\uc7a5\uae30 \ud3c9\uade0\uc801\uc778 \uc6b0\uc0c1\ud5a5 \uacbd\ub85c\ub97c \ubcf4\ub294 \uc6a9\ub3c4\u201d\ub85c\ub294 \uc4f8 \ub9cc\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ub2e8\uae30 \uac00\uaca9 \uae09\ubcc0\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub9de\ucd94\ub294 \uc6a9\ub3c4\ub85c \uc4f0\uae30\uc5d4 \ud55c\uacc4\uac00 \ud06c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcfc \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n<style>.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading5479_0e249b-20, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading5479_0e249b-20[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading5479_0e249b-20\"]{font-style:normal;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading5479_0e249b-20 mark.kt-highlight, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading5479_0e249b-20[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading5479_0e249b-20\"] mark.kt-highlight{font-style:normal;color:#f76a0c;-webkit-box-decoration-break:clone;box-decoration-break:clone;padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading5479_0e249b-20 img.kb-inline-image, .wp-block-kadence-advancedheading.kt-adv-heading5479_0e249b-20[data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading5479_0e249b-20\"] img.kb-inline-image{width:150px;vertical-align:baseline;}<\/style>\n<h3 id=\"samsung-scenario-table\" class=\"kt-adv-heading5479_0e249b-20 wp-block-kadence-advancedheading\" data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading5479_0e249b-20\">\uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790 1\/3\/5\/10\ub144 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 \ud45c<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc544\ub798\uc640 \uac19\uc774 \ud558\ub098\uc758 \ud45c\ub85c \uc815\ub9ac\ud574\ubcf4\uc558\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">\uc2dc\uc810<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Bear(\ubcf4\uc218)<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Base(\uc911\uc559)<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Bull(\ub099\uad00)<\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">\ube44\uace0<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>1\ub144 \ud6c4<\/td><td>\u20a969,574<\/td><td>\u20a980,870<\/td><td>\u20a992,143<\/td><td>\uc6d4 \ub2e8\uc704 \uc608\uce21<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>3\ub144 \ud6c4<\/td><td>\u20a975,837<\/td><td>\u20a987,416<\/td><td>\u20a999,108<\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>5\ub144 \ud6c4<\/td><td>\u20a980,907<\/td><td>\u20a993,572<\/td><td>\u20a9106,370<\/td><td><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>10\ub144 \ud6c4(2035)<\/td><td>\u20a993,490<\/td><td>\u20a9109,319<\/td><td>\u20a9125,482<\/td><td>\uae30\uc900\uc77c: 2025-12-16<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">FAQ<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Q1. \uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790 10\ub144\ud6c4 \uc8fc\uac00\ub97c Prophet\uc73c\ub85c \ub9de\ucd9c \uc218 \uc788\ub098\uc694?<\/strong><br>A. \u201c\uc815\ub2f5 \ub9de\ud788\uae30\u201d\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294 <strong>\ud328\ud134 \uae30\ubc18 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624<\/strong>\ub97c \ub9cc\ub4dc\ub294 \ub370 \uc758\ubbf8\uac00 \ud07d\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc7a5\uae30 \uc608\uce21\uc740 \ucda9\uaca9 \ubcc0\uc218\uc5d0 \uc57d\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Q2. Prophet \uc2e0\ub8b0\uad6c\uac04(yhat_lower~upper)\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uae4c\uc9c0 \ud3ec\ud568\ud558\ub098\uc694?<\/strong><br>A. \uc544\ub2d9\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uae30\ubcf8\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 <strong>\ubaa8\ub378 \ucd94\uc815 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131<\/strong>\uc5d0 \uac00\uae5d\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Q3. \uc65c \uc77c\ubcc4\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc6d4\ubcc4\ub85c \uc608\uce21\ud558\ub098\uc694?<\/strong><br>A. 10\ub144 \uc7a5\uae30\ub294 \uc77c\ubcc4 \ub178\uc774\uc988\uac00 \ub108\ubb34 \ucee4\uc11c \uacfc\uc801\ud569\uc774 \uc26c\uc6cc\uc694. Prophet\ub3c4 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc8fc\uae30\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucdb0 \uc608\uce21 \uc8fc\uae30\ub97c \uc124\uc815\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc744 \uc548\ub0b4\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Q5. \uc774 \uae00\ub300\ub85c \ud22c\uc790\ud574\ub3c4 \ub418\ub098\uc694?<\/strong><br>A. \ud22c\uc790 \uc790\ubb38\uc774 \uc544\ub2d9\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubaa8\ub378\uc740 \ucc38\uace0 \ub3c4\uad6c\uc774\uace0, \ucd5c\uc885 \ud310\ub2e8\uc740 \ubcf8\uc778 \ucc45\uc784\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uc81c\uac00 \uc791\ub144 \uc774\ub9d8\ucbe4(2025\ub144 12\uc6d4) \uc720\uc0ac\ud55c \uc8fc\uc81c\ub85c \uae00\uc744 \uc37c\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790 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