{"id":4110,"date":"2024-12-21T16:50:54","date_gmt":"2024-12-21T07:50:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/?p=4110"},"modified":"2025-12-18T12:52:47","modified_gmt":"2025-12-18T03:52:47","slug":"samsung-electronics-10-year-stock-price-prediction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/zh\/samsung-electronics-10-year-stock-price-prediction\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e09\u661f\u7535\u5b50 10 \u5e74\u540e\u7684\u80a1\u4ef7\uff1a\u7528\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u548c\u6570\u636e\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\uff08Python \u7279\u5199\uff09"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc5ec\ub7ec\ubd84, \uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790 10\ub144 \ud6c4 \uc8fc\uac00\uac00 \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \ub420\uc9c0 \uad81\uae08\ud558\uc2e0 \uc801 \uc788\uc73c\uc2e0\uac00\uc694? \uc624\ub298\uc740 \uadf8 \ud765\ubbf8\uc9c4\uc9c4\ud55c \uc5ec\uc815\uc744 \ud568\uaed8 \ub5a0\ub098\ubcf4\ub824 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790 10\ub144\ud6c4 \uc8fc\uac00\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc608\uce21\uc740 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud55c \uc22b\uc790 \uac8c\uc784\uc774 \uc544\ub2d9\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uae30\uc220\uc758 \uc9c4\ubcf4, \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \ud750\ub984, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \uc77c\uc0c1\uc774 \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \ubcc0\ud654\ud560\uc9c0\ub97c \uadf8\ub824\ubcf4\ub294 \uacfc\uc815\uc774\uae30\ub3c4 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.(\uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790 10\ub144\ud6c4 \uc8fc\uac00\ub294 \uc57d 12\ub9cc\uc6d0\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uce21\ub418\ub124\uc694!)<\/p>\n\n\n<style>.kb-image4110_10bd91-88 .kb-image-has-overlay:after{opacity:0.3;border-top-left-radius:5px;border-top-right-radius:5px;border-bottom-right-radius:5px;border-bottom-left-radius:5px;}.kb-image4110_10bd91-88 img.kb-img, .kb-image4110_10bd91-88 .kb-img img{border-top-left-radius:5px;border-top-right-radius:5px;border-bottom-right-radius:5px;border-bottom-left-radius:5px;box-shadow:0px 0px 14px 0px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2);}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-image kb-image4110_10bd91-88\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1200\" height=\"599\" src=\"https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/\uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790-10\ub144\ud6c4-\uc8fc\uac00-\ud3ec\uc2a4\ud2b8-\uc378\ub124\uc77c.jpg\" alt=\"\uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790 10\ub144\ud6c4 \uc8fc\uac00 \uc2dc\uac01\ud654\" class=\"kb-img wp-image-4111\" srcset=\"https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/\uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790-10\ub144\ud6c4-\uc8fc\uac00-\ud3ec\uc2a4\ud2b8-\uc378\ub124\uc77c.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/\uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790-10\ub144\ud6c4-\uc8fc\uac00-\ud3ec\uc2a4\ud2b8-\uc378\ub124\uc77c-300x150.jpg 300w, https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/\uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790-10\ub144\ud6c4-\uc8fc\uac00-\ud3ec\uc2a4\ud2b8-\uc378\ub124\uc77c-600x300.jpg 600w, https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/\uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790-10\ub144\ud6c4-\uc8fc\uac00-\ud3ec\uc2a4\ud2b8-\uc378\ub124\uc77c-768x383.jpg 768w, https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/\uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790-10\ub144\ud6c4-\uc8fc\uac00-\ud3ec\uc2a4\ud2b8-\uc378\ub124\uc77c-18x9.jpg 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><figcaption>(\u5341\u5e74\u95f4\u4e09\u661f\u7535\u5b50\u80a1\u4ef7\u7684 Python \u53ef\u89c6\u5316\u56fe\u793a\uff09<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5229\u7528\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u548c\u6570\u636e\u5206\u6790\u6765\u5c55\u671b\u4e09\u661f\u7535\u5b50\u7684\u672a\u6765\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u6709\u76ca\u7684\u542f\u793a\uff08\u6709\u4eba\u8bf4\u4e09\u661f\u7535\u5b50\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u6587\u5316\u6ca1\u6709\u5e0c\u671b\u4e86\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4e0e\u8fc7\u53bb\u76f8\u6bd4\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u5f88\u5927\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b83\u5c06\u8d70\u4e0a\u82f1\u7279\u5c14\u7684\u8001\u8def\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u6301\u80af\u5b9a\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u8fd9\u6709\u70b9\u4ee4\u4eba\u6cae\u4e27\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\uc774 \uae00\uc774 \uc0ac\uc2e4 2024\ub144 12\uc6d4\uacbd\uc5d0 \uc791\uc131\ub418\uc5c8\ub294\ub370 1\ub144\uc774 \uc880 \uc9c0\ub09c \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0 \ud55c\ubc88 <a href=\"https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/zh\/%ec%82%bc%ec%84%b1%ec%a0%84%ec%9e%90-10%eb%85%84%ed%9b%84-%ec%a3%bc%ea%b0%80-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d2035-prophet-%ec%98%88%ec%b8%a1-%eb%b0%b1%ed%85%8c%ec%8a%a4%ed%8a%b8-%ec%8b%9c%eb%82%98%eb%a6%ac%ec%98%a4\/\">\uc5c5\ub370\uc774\ud2b8<\/a>\ub97c \ud574\ubcf4\uc558\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n<style>.kb-table-of-content-nav.kb-table-of-content-id83_5f28a6-34 .kb-table-of-content-wrap{padding-top:var(--global-kb-spacing-sm, 1.5rem);padding-right:var(--global-kb-spacing-sm, 1.5rem);padding-bottom:var(--global-kb-spacing-sm, 1.5rem);padding-left:var(--global-kb-spacing-sm, 1.5rem);border-top:3px solid var(--global-palette2, #2B6CB0);border-right:3px solid var(--global-palette2, #2B6CB0);border-bottom:3px solid var(--global-palette2, #2B6CB0);border-left:3px solid var(--global-palette2, #2B6CB0);border-top-left-radius:5px;border-top-right-radius:5px;border-bottom-right-radius:5px;border-bottom-left-radius:5px;box-shadow:0px 0px 14px 0px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2);}.kb-table-of-content-nav.kb-table-of-content-id83_5f28a6-34 .kb-table-of-contents-title-wrap{padding-top:0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:0px;padding-left:0px;}.kb-table-of-content-nav.kb-table-of-content-id83_5f28a6-34 .kb-table-of-contents-title-wrap{color:var(--global-palette2, #2B6CB0);}.kb-table-of-content-nav.kb-table-of-content-id83_5f28a6-34 .kb-table-of-contents-title{color:var(--global-palette2, #2B6CB0);font-size:28px;font-weight:regular;font-style:normal;}.kb-table-of-content-nav.kb-table-of-content-id83_5f28a6-34 .kb-table-of-content-wrap .kb-table-of-content-list{color:var(--global-palette1, #3182CE);line-height:2em;font-weight:regular;font-style:normal;margin-top:var(--global-kb-spacing-sm, 1.5rem);margin-right:0px;margin-bottom:0px;margin-left:0px;}.kb-table-of-content-nav.kb-table-of-content-id83_5f28a6-34 .kb-table-of-content-wrap .kb-table-of-content-list .kb-table-of-contents__entry:hover{color:var(--global-palette6, #718096);}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kb-table-of-content-nav.kb-table-of-content-id83_5f28a6-34 .kb-table-of-content-wrap{border-top:3px solid var(--global-palette2, #2B6CB0);border-right:3px solid var(--global-palette2, #2B6CB0);border-bottom:3px solid var(--global-palette2, #2B6CB0);border-left:3px solid var(--global-palette2, #2B6CB0);}}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kb-table-of-content-nav.kb-table-of-content-id83_5f28a6-34 .kb-table-of-contents-title{font-size:28px;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kb-table-of-content-nav.kb-table-of-content-id83_5f28a6-34 .kb-table-of-content-wrap{border-top:3px solid var(--global-palette2, #2B6CB0);border-right:3px solid var(--global-palette2, #2B6CB0);border-bottom:3px solid var(--global-palette2, #2B6CB0);border-left:3px solid var(--global-palette2, #2B6CB0);}.kb-table-of-content-nav.kb-table-of-content-id83_5f28a6-34 .kb-table-of-contents-title{font-size:28px;}}<\/style>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e09\u661f\u7535\u5b50 10 \u5e74\u540e\u7684\u80a1\u4ef7\uff1a\u5f53\u524d\u5c55\u671b<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4ece\u8bc1\u5238\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u9884\u6d4b\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e09\u661f\u7535\u5b50 10 \u5e74\u540e\u80a1\u4ef7\u7684\u9884\u671f\u6709\u6240\u56de\u8c03\uff0c\"100,000-e \"\u7684\u4e50\u89c2\u9884\u6d4b\u4e5f\u6709\u6240\u56de\u8c03\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u662f\u77ed\u671f\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u957f\u671f\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u8fd9\u79cd\u6ce2\u52a8\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u673a\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u548c\u6570\u636e\u9884\u6d4b\u4e09\u661f\u7535\u5b50\u672a\u6765\u80a1\u4ef7<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u73b0\u5728 <a href=\"http:\/\/python.org\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Python<\/a>\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u5b66\u4e60\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u7684\u6709\u529b\u5de5\u5177\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-code\"><code>import yfinance as yf\nimport matplotlib.pyplot as plt\nimport pandas as pd\nimport numpy as np\nfrom prophet import Prophet\nfrom datetime import datetime, timedelta\n\n\u5bfc\u5165 # \u4e09\u661f\u7535\u5b50\u6570\u636e\uff08\u8fc7\u53bb 10 \u5e74\uff09\n\u4ee3\u7801 = \"005930.KS\"\ndata = yf.download(ticker, period=\"10y\")\n\n\u51c6\u5907 # \u5148\u77e5\u6570\u636e\ndf = data['Adj Close'].reset_index()\ndf.columns = ['ds', 'y'] \u5217\n\n\u8bad\u7ec3 # Prophet \u6a21\u578b\nmodel = Prophet(\n    yearly_seasonality=True\u3001\n    weekly_seasonality=True\u3001\n    daily_seasonality=False\u3001\n    changepoint_prior_scale=0.5\u3001\n    seasonality_mode='multiplicative' # \u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u4e58\u6027\u7684\n)\nmodel.fit(df)\n\n# \u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765 10 \u5e74\uff083650 \u5929\nfuture_dates = model.make_future_dataframe(periods=3650)\n\u9884\u6d4b = model.predict(future_dates)\n\n\u7ed8\u5236 # \u56fe\u8868\nplt.figure(figsize=(20, 10))\n\n\u7ed8\u5236 # \u771f\u5b9e\u6570\u636e\nplt.plot(df['ds'], df['y'], label='\u5386\u53f2\u4ef7\u683c', color='blue', alpha=0.6)\n\n\u7ed8\u5236 # \u9884\u6d4b\u6570\u636e\nforecast_dates = forecast['ds'][len(df):]\nforecast_values = forecast['yhat'][len(df):]\nplt.plot(forecast_dates, forecast_values, label='\u9884\u6d4b\u4ef7\u683c', color='red', linestyle='--')\n\n\u7ed8\u5236 # \u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\nplt.fill_between(forecast_dates\u3001\n                forecast['yhat_lower'][len(df):]\u3001\n                predict['yhat_upper'][len(df):]\u3001\n                color='red', alpha=0.2, label='95% \u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4')\n\n# \u56fe\u8868\u7684\u6837\u5f0f\nplt.title(\"Samsung Electronics 10 \u5e74\u80a1\u4ef7\u9884\u6d4b\", fontsize=16, pad=20)\nplt.xlabel(\"Year\", fontsize=14)\nplt.ylabel(\"Stock Price (KRW)\", fontsize=14)\nplt.legend(fontsize=12)\nplt.grid(True, linestyle='--', alpha=0.7)\n\n\u8c03\u6574 # x \u8f74\u65e5\u671f\u683c\u5f0f\nplt.gcf().autofmt_xdate()\n\n\u663e\u793a # \u7684\u5f53\u524d\u4ef7\u683c\u548c 10 \u5e74\u540e\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4ef7\u683c\ncurrent_price = df['y'].iloc[-1]\nfinal_prediction = forecast['yhat'].iloc[-1]\nplt.annotate(f'Current: \u20a9{current_price:,.0f}'\u3001\n             xy=(df['ds'].iloc[-1], current_price)\u3001\n             xytext=(10, 10), textcoords='offset points'\u3001\n             fontsize=12)\nplt.annotate(f'10Y Prediction: \u20a9{final_prediction:,.0f}'\u3001\n             xy=(forecast_dates.iloc[-1], final_prediction)\u3001\n             xytext=(10, 10), textcoords='offset points'\u3001\n             fontsize=12)\n\nplt.tight_layout()\nplt.show()\n\n# \u6253\u5370\u5173\u952e\u70b9\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\nprint(\"\\nPredicted values at key points:\")\nfuture_dates = [1, 3, 5, 7, 10] # \u5e74\u4efd\nfor years in future_dates\uff1a\n    future_idx = len(df) + years * 365\n    predicted_price = forecast['yhat'].iloc[future_idx]\u9884\u6d4b\u4ef7\u683c\n    lower_bound = forecast['yhat_lower'].iloc[future_idx].\n    upper_bound = forecast['yhat_upper'].iloc[future_idx] \u4e0a\u9650\n    date = forecast['ds'].iloc[future_idx].strftime('%Y-%m-%d')\n    print(f\"\/n{years} years later ({date})\")\n    print(f \"Predicted price: \u20a9{predicted_price:,.0f}\")\n    print(f \"Confidence interval: ${lower_bound:,.0f} ~ ${upper_bound:,.0f}\")\n\n\u8ba1\u7b97 # \u590d\u5408\u5e74\u589e\u957f\u7387 (CAGR)\n\u5e74\u6570 = 10\ncagr = (((final_prediction \/ current_price) ** (1\/years))- 1)* 100\nprint(f\"\/nExpected Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)\uff1a{cagr:.2f}%\")<\/code><\/pre>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4ee3\u7801\u8bc4\u6ce8<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5bfc\u5165\u6240\u9700\u7684\u5e93\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4f7f\u7528 yfinance \u4e0b\u8f7d\u4e09\u661f\u7535\u5b50 10 \u5e74\u80a1\u4ef7\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4e3a\u5148\u77e5\u6a21\u578b\u51c6\u5907\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5efa\u7acb\u5e76\u8bad\u7ec3\u4e00\u4e2a\u5148\u77e5\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u6bcf\u5e74\u548c\u6bcf\u5468\u7684\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5bf9\u672a\u6765 10 \u5e74\uff083650 \u5929\uff09\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4f7f\u7528 matplotlib \u751f\u6210\u56fe\u8868\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5c06\u5b9e\u9645\u80a1\u4ef7\u6570\u636e\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u80a1\u4ef7\u7ed8\u5236\u5728\u56fe\u8868\u4e0a\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5c06\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u7ed8\u5236\u5728\u56fe\u8868\u4e0a\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8bbe\u7f6e\u56fe\u8868\u6807\u9898\u3001\u5750\u6807\u8f74\u6807\u7b7e\u7b49\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5728\u56fe\u4e0a\u6807\u6ce8\u5f53\u524d\u4ef7\u683c\u548c 10 \u5e74\u540e\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4ef7\u683c\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8f93\u51fa 1\u30013\u30015\u30017 \u548c 10 \u5e74\u540e\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4ef7\u683c\u548c\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8ba1\u7b97\u5e76\u8f93\u51fa 10 \u5e74\u7684\u590d\u5408\u5e74\u589e\u957f\u7387 (CAGR)\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f7f\u7528\u6b64\u4ee3\u7801\uff0c\u60a8\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u5e76\u76f4\u89c2\u663e\u793a 10 \u5e74\u540e\u4e09\u661f\u7535\u5b50\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e09\u661f\u7535\u5b50 10 \u5e74\u540e\u7684\u80a1\u4ef7\u5f88\u96be\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4f46\u8fc7\u53bb 10 \u5e74\u7684\u80a1\u4ef7\u8d70\u52bf\u5374\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u770b\u6e05\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u5417\uff1f \u5982\u679c\u60a8\u5bf9\u6b64\u611f\u5230\u597d\u5947\uff0c\u8bf7\u67e5\u770b\u4ee5\u4e0b\u6587\u7ae0 <a href=\"https:\/\/secondlife.lol\/zh\/samsung-electronics-10-year-stock-price\/\">\u70b9\u51fb\u6b64\u5904<\/a>\u8bd5\u8bd5\u770b\u4e0b\u56fe\u662f\u6211\u6839\u636e\u8fc7\u53bb 10 \u5e74\u7684\u6708\u5e73\u5747\u80a1\u4ef7\u7ed8\u5236\u7684\uff01<\/p>\n\n\n<style>.kb-image4110_40b5cc-ac 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