Possible eruption of Mt: Eruption history confirmed by R bubble chart

Mount Fuji is a well-known symbol of Japan and a World Heritage Site. But did you know that it's also a potentially dangerous mountain? After more than 300 years of quiet since the "Great Hoei Eruption" in 1707, there is growing concern that Mount Fuji could erupt at any time.

In this article, we'll take a look at the possible eruption of Mount Fuji, focusing on the historical record, the economic damage, and the Japanese government's response. We'll also cover the R We've prepared a visualization using bubble charts to help you understand the eruption history of Mount Fuji at a glance.

Possible Mount Fuji eruption: What the experts say

The possibility of an eruption of Mount Fuji is being taken very seriously by volcanologists in Japan and around the world. After being dormant for over 300 years since the Great Hoei Eruption of 1707, Mount Fuji is currently building up powerful magma energy inside, leading to warnings that it could erupt at any time.

Analyzing the potential for a Mt. Fuji eruption

1. Magma buildup status

• "Mount Fuji hasn't erupted in 300 years, so powerful forces have built up inside," warned Toshiyasu Nagao, a visiting professor at Tokai University's Institute of Oceanography.
• "There is a large pool of magma 20 kilometers deep beneath Mount Fuji, which could act as a trigger for a volcanic eruption," explained Toshitsugu Fujii, professor emeritus at the University of Tokyo.

2. Recent seismic activity

• The low-frequency and small earthquakes that have occurred around Mt. Fuji are likely related to the fluidity of the magma.
• In 2021 and 2022, earthquakes of magnitude 4.8 to 5.4 occurred near the summit of Mount Fuji, which analysts say could be a precursor to an eruption.

3. Warnings from multiple experts

• "The eruption of Mount Fuji appears to be getting closer," said Hideki Shimamura, a professor at Musashino Gakuin University, emphasizing the need to watch for signs of eruption and be prepared.
• "There are always precursors before an eruption, so it's important to catch them," said Tamakasa Wada, a disaster risk management advisor at the National Center for Disaster Management, who advised residents to evacuate quickly when warned of an eruption.

Expected impacts of the eruption of Mount Fuji

1. Economic harm

• Experts estimate that the eruption of Mount Fuji could cause economic losses of up to 200 trillion yen.
• Volcanic ash is expected to cripple the transportation and power grids in Tokyo and the metropolitan area, leaving about 36 million people without power.

2. Environmental impact

• The ash will most likely travel eastward on the prevailing westerly winds, blanketing Tokyo and the Kanto region.
• Tokyo could see ash up to 10 centimeters thick, which could cause building collapses and massive power outages.

3. Evacuation issues

• The Japanese government estimates that up to 26.7 million people would need to be evacuated in the event of a Mount Fuji eruption, and recently revised its evacuation plan.
• Lava flows are traveling at human walking speeds, so evacuation by foot is recommended instead of by vehicle.

Visualize historical Mount Fuji eruption records

Fuji has erupted about 180 times in the last 5600 years, averaging about once every 30 years. However, it has been silent for more than 300 years since the great eruption of 1707, raising concerns about magma buildup and possible eruptions.

Below is the historical eruption record of Mount Fuji, visualized using R bubble charts. Each dot represents the year and duration of an eruption, and the size and color represent the intensity of the eruption.

# Load the necessary libraries
library(ggplot2)
library(ggrepel)

Prepare # data
eruptions <- data.frame(
  Year = c(781, 800, 864, 937, 999, 1033, 1083, 1149, 1511, 1707),
  Duration = c(10, 5, 15, 20, 8, 12, 7, 30, 14, 70),
  Intensity = c(3, 2, 4, 5, 3, 4, 2, 6, 5, 7)
)

Create a bubble chart based on the # timeframe
ggplot(eruptions, aes(x = Year, y = Duration, size = Intensity, color = Intensity)) +
  geom_point(alpha = 0.7) +
  scale_size_continuous(range = c(3, 20)) +
  scale_color_viridis_c() +
  geom_text_repel(aes(label = Year), size = 3) +
  theme_minimal() +
  labs(title = "Historical eruption record of Mount Fuji",
       x = "Year", y = "Eruption duration (days)",
       size = "eruption intensity", color = "eruption intensity") +
  theme(legend.position = "right")

Code commentary

1. Prepare your data: Year, Duration, IntensityCreate a dataframe consisting of
2. Setting up ggplot: aes()to represent the x-axis in years (Year), the y-axis is the duration (Duration), size and color are set by intensity (Intensity).
3. geom_point(): Creates a bubble chart and adjusts its transparency.
4. geom_text_repel(): label each point with the year.
5. Add themes and labels: Set graph titles and axis labels.

Japanese government response

The Japanese government is taking specific measures to prepare for the eruption of Mt:

1. Introducing a wide area volcanic ash forecasting system
   • The National Weather Service is developing a "wide area volcanic ash fall forecast system.
   • We categorize volcanic ash fall into three tiers: 'greater than 30 cm', 'greater than 3 cm', and 'very small amounts'.
   • Next year, we will create the position of "Volcanic Ash Information Planning Coordinator" to accelerate plan implementation.
2. Create guidelines for resident behavior
   • Evacuations are recommended when ash accumulations are more than 30 centimeters thick.
   • If the ash is less than 30 centimeters, the default recommendation is to stay home or in a safe place.
   • If the ash is 3 to 30 centimeters thick and expected to increase, evacuate to a safe place, depending on the situation.
3. Municipal Utilization Plan:
   • The government will compile a Resident Action Plan with guidance and encourage local governments to utilize it by the end of the year.

Indirect impact on South Korea

The eruption of Mount Fuji could also have indirect impacts on South Korea, including

1. Flight cancellations and logistical disruptions
   • Air logistics disruptions caused by volcanic ash can cause stock market swings and major changes to the economy.
2. Industries dependent on Japanese parts hit
   • In particular, the semiconductor industry could be affected. If volcanic ash blows as far south as the Korean Peninsula, it could disrupt semiconductor factory operations.
   • This is likely to cause the stock prices of the companies involved to fall.
3. Environmental concerns from volcanic ash flowing into the Korean Peninsula
   • You might see an increase in mask sales.
   • Volcanic ash is hazardous to health and can cause health problems due to poor air quality.

The extent of these impacts will vary depending on the size of the eruption and weather conditions.

Wrapping up

Mount Fuji is more than just a beautiful natural landscape; understanding and preparing for its potential dangers is important not only for Japan, but for all of us. We hope the R bubble chart visualization in this post has helped you understand the history of Mount Fuji eruptions at a glance.

As a side note, did you know that R can be used to plot multi-axis graphs? Implementing ggplot2 Multi-Axis Graphs - How to Apply a Secondary Y-Axis Read the post to gain that knowledge!